Kurds’ Power Wanes as Arab Anger Rises
Michael Kamber for The New York Times
Sulaimaniya and other parts of the Kurdish area of northern Iraq have remained largely peaceful as well as affluent.
By ALISSA J. RUBIN
Published: February 1, 2008
BAGHDAD — As a minority group in Iraq, the Kurds have enjoyed disproportionate influence in the country’s politics since the ouster of Saddam Hussein
in 2003. But now their leverage appears to be declining as tensions
rise with Iraqi Arabs, raising the specter of another fissure alongside
the sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shiites.
The
Kurds, who are mostly Sunni but not Arab, have steadfastly backed the
government, most recently helping to keep it afloat when Prime Minister
Nuri Kamal al-Maliki lacked support from much of Parliament.
With
their political acumen, close ties to the Americans and technical
competence at running government agencies, the Kurds cemented a
position of enormous strength. This allowed them to all but dictate
terms in Iraq’s Constitution that gave them considerable regional
autonomy and some significant rights in oil development.
But
now the Kurds are pursuing policies that are antagonizing the other
factions. The Kurds’ efforts to seize control of the oil-rich city of
Kirkuk and to gain a more advantageous division of national revenues
are uniting most Sunnis and many Shiites with Mr. Maliki’s government
in opposition to the Kurdish demands.
For the United States, the
diminution in Kurdish power is part of a larger problem of political
divisiveness that has plagued its efforts to build a functioning
government in Iraq. While several political parties can come together
to address a particular issue, none can seem to form the lasting
allegiances needed for actual governance.
The Kurds, with their
pro-American outlook, were a natural ally. But now the Americans are
increasingly placed in the uncomfortable position of choosing between
the Kurds, whom they have long supported and protected, and the Iraqi
Arabs, whose government the Americans helped create.
One major
Shiite group, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, has not publicly
taken sides, but powerful people within the party have been openly
critical of the Kurds. Others expressing frustration are leading
members of Parliament and Hussain al-Shahristani, the oil minister and
a prominent Shiite politician, who calls Kurdish oil contracts with
foreign companies illegal.
Humam Hamoudi, a leader of the
Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, said, “They are no longer the egg in
the balance,” using an Arabic proverb that refers to the item that tips
the scale. Mr. Hamoudi added, “The Kurds are not so powerful.”
Independent
analysts largely back that assertion. “There’s a strong feeling that
the Kurds have overreached,” said Joost Hiltermann, a senior analyst
for the Middle East at the International Crisis Group who is based in
Istanbul.
“The Kurds had their eye on independence in the long
term, and they wanted to use the current window to increase the
territory they hold and the powers they exercise within the territory,”
he added. “They’ve done well on the powers, but not so well on the
territory. They now face real restrictions.”
The jousting
threatens to undermine much of what the Kurds have achieved in
political influence and to supersede, at least temporarily, the far
deeper divide between Sunnis and Shiites.
And by helping unite
Sunnis and Shiites, the Kurds’ overreaching has strengthened the hand
of Mr. Maliki despite widespread doubts about his ability to govern
effectively. The tensions could even persuade the central government to
further postpone an already delayed referendum on whether to make
Kirkuk part of the Kurds’ semiautonomous region.
“The
government got a lot of support when they stood against the exaggerated
demands of the Kurds,” said Jaber Habeeb, an independent Shiite member
of Parliament who is also a political science professor at Baghdad
University. But to capitalize on this support, which is almost certain
to be temporary, he said, the government must move quickly to improve
electricity, water and other basic services.
The Kurds have
been locked for decades in a power struggle with Sunni Arabs, most
recently with Mr. Hussein. That led to the Hussein government’s Anfal
campaign, in which about 180,000 Kurds died and 2,000 Kurdish villages
were destroyed, according to Kurdish counts.
The United States
and its allies created a no-flight zone over the Kurdish areas after
the Persian Gulf war in 1991, and the areas have since become
increasingly affluent. While much of Iraq has been engulfed in violence
since 2003, Kurdistan has been notably peaceful, with streams of
foreign investment and a building boom in Erbil, the largest city.
Against that backdrop, the Kurdish aspiration to bring more territory,
including Kirkuk, into its semiautonomous region looks greedy to the
Arabs.
In a signal of its displeasure, Parliament has refused
to approve a new budget because it awards the Kurds 17 percent of the
total revenues, which many representatives say is more than their share
based on population. Because Iraq has not had a census in decades, it
is impossible to know the true size of the Kurdish population. Some
Kurdish leaders say it could be 23 percent; some Arabs say it is 13
percent.
The Kurds are also believed to collect millions of
dollars in duties on goods coming into Iraq but they neither send the
money to Baghdad nor share accounts of the income, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Parliament members are also angered that the Kurds want Baghdad to pay
salaries of their militia, the pesh merga, from the Defense Ministry’s
budget. The pesh merga operate primarily in Kurdistan rather than
serving the country as a whole.
However, the Kurds contend
that in the event of an invasion they would be on the front lines. Such
a situation seems all too real to the Kurds, because Turkey has
recently threatened to invade to rout the rebel Kurdistan Workers
Party. The rebels have been mounting attacks over the border into
Turkish territory.
Perhaps most grating for Iraqi Arabs, the
Kurds have refused to back down on the oil exploration contracts they
have signed with foreign companies. Arabs view the central government
as the only entity empowered to approve contracts, albeit in
consultation with the regions where the oil is located.
The
Kurds argue that the central government has been dragging its feet on
an oil law and that they cannot afford to defer oil exploration and
development further, said Ros Shawees, a former vice president of Iraq
and point man in Baghdad for Massoud Barzani, the president of the semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government.
The Kurds acknowledge that they are worried by the opposition that has
developed, although they are reluctant to concede that they may have
overplayed their hand. “It is necessary to keep such feelings to a
minimum,” Mr. Shawees said. “We have to work in different respects to
show that the Kurdish region doesn’t just make demands and take things,
but that the region is an example for all regions and it can benefit
all Iraq.”
For now, however, the budget has yet to be
approved, the oil law and revenue sharing laws are in limbo, and there
is a new and visible fault line on the Iraqi political scene.
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